Barzin financial earnings predictor

Meridian Financial Engine

Backtest · Downs

Down calls only, the puts. The chance is of finishing lower. Those chances are left as the model stated them. Each week lists the large reporters on the Zacks calendar. The chance is Meridian rerun on the session before the reaction, from the price trend and where the stock sat versus its high. The priced move is blank: the morning ORATS summary for these dates was not on this run, so the options card stayed out. Valuation, quality, and earnings surprises are blank too, because those figures are not stored as of that morning. Before the open is that day’s close against the prior close. After the close is the next session. A print with no session time stays unscored. A move inside ±1% is flat.

Overall: 10 of 14 (71%)
Down only: 3 of 5 (60%)
65% and up: 4 of 6 (67%)

Calibration

Each bar is how often a down call finished lower. A 60% put should land near 60%.

  • 50–55%0 names
  • 55–60%5 names · hit 80% · stated 58%
  • 60–66%3 names · hit 67% · stated 63%
  • 66–75%6 names · hit 67% · stated 70%
  • 75%+0 names

No live down call is frozen yet. The rows below are the Q4 replay. The next week locks at 11:30 AM ET on the first open session.

10 of 14 finished down calls matched the close.

Oct 5 – Oct 9 · PepsiCo was the call, and it finished up +3.7%

  • PEPPepsiCoCall
    2026-10-08 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    68% · Hold
    Net
    -41
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Up +3.7%

Oct 12 – Oct 16 · Wells Fargo & Company was the call, and it finished down 3.1%

  • WFCWells Fargo & CompanyCall
    2026-10-13 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    59% · Hold
    Net
    -10
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -3.1%
  • GSThe Goldman Sachs Group
    2026-10-13 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    59% · Hold
    Net
    -19
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Flat -0.2%
  • BACBank of America
    2026-10-14 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    59% · Hold
    Net
    -17
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -4.8%
  • JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.
    2026-10-13 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    58% · Hold
    Net
    -8
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Flat -0.9%
  • MSMorgan Stanley
    2026-10-14 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    57% · Hold
    Net
    -14
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -2.7%
  • SCHWCharles Schwab
    2026-10-15 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    56% · Hold
    Net
    -13
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -2.7%
  • BLKBlackRock
    2026-10-14 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    55% · Hold
    Net
    -5
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Flat +0.7%
  • UNHUnitedHealth Group
    2026-10-13 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    52% · Hold
    Net
    -2
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Flat -0.2%

Oct 19 – Oct 23 · Netflix was the call, and it finished down 5.3%

  • NFLXNetflixCall
    2026-10-20 · After the close
    Chance of down
    70% · Hold
    Net
    -42
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -5.3%
  • LRCXLam Research
    2026-10-21 · After the close
    Chance of down
    68% · Hold
    Net
    -19
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -11.8%
  • GEGE Aerospace
    2026-10-20 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    62% · Down
    Net
    -12
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -3.7%

Oct 26 – Oct 30 · Amazon.com was the call, and it finished down 1.4%

  • AMZNAmazon.comCall
    2026-10-29 · After the close
    Chance of down
    70% · Down
    Net
    -22
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -1.4%
  • GOOGLAlphabet
    2026-10-28 · After the close
    Chance of down
    62% · Down
    Net
    -12
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -12.6%

Nov 2 – Nov 6 · Novo Nordisk was the call, and it finished up +5.0%

  • NVONovo NordiskCall
    2026-11-04 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    74% · Down
    Net
    -26
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Up +5.0%
  • ARMARM Holdings PLC Sponsored ADR
    2026-11-04 · After the close
    Chance of down
    69% · Hold
    Net
    -42
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Down -13.1%
  • MCDMcDonald's
    2026-11-04 · Before the open
    Chance of down
    65% · Down
    Net
    -15
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Up +6.5%
  • ANETArista Networks
    2026-11-03 · After the close
    Chance of down
    59% · Hold
    Net
    -19
    Priced move
    —
    Report-day close
    Up +5.0%