The week

Hover Week for UPs and Downs. UPs are the names leaning higher. Downs are the puts, the names leaning lower. Each side has its own call.

A cheap print leads. Cheap means the move ORATS prices for the report is 0.8 times the last five report-day moves, or less. Tech names in that group come first. After the cheap prints, the strongest chance on that side leads.

The call locks at 11:30 AM ET on the first day the market is open that week. When Monday is a holiday, the lock moves to Tuesday. A visit before that time is a preview and does not save the call. After the lock, a later visit does not recompute it. A week that was never locked on the live desk is marked replay.

Where the names come from

The week follows the Zacks earnings calendar. Yahoo supplies the print time and the market cap when it has the same date. Large reporters only. MSN adds the analyst rating and the mean price target beside the row. It does not move the date, and it does not change the chance. Zacks Rank is not in the free calendar, so it does not move the score.

ORATS supplies the priced earnings move, the options-market chance of an up close, and the skew, when the expiry still covers the print. A chain that expires before the print is ignored. The desk’s chance of an up close is cooled, because stated 60–66% up calls hit about 38% in the last book. Down chances are left as the model stated them.

FMP may answer a quote. The desk still prices the tape from Yahoo until that feed is mapped in, so estimates, margins, and the price history stay on Yahoo.

What the chance is

The chance is the desk net run through a fixed curve. It is a research ranking, not a promise the stock rises, and it is not the options-market probability. That probability is shown on the row only when the expiry still covers the print. A move inside ±1% is flat and does not count as a hit.

The backtest

Hover Backtest for the same split. UPs scores only the up calls. Downs scores only the puts. Each page has a hit rate, a calibration chart, and one call per week. A 60% call should land near 60%. The Q4 rows are a replay of the session before each reaction. A live call joins that book once it is frozen and the close is in.

The line under the name

That line is the verdict. Build is the call, a lean up. Down is the put, a lean down on the same bar. Hold means the desk will not pretend. A build needs about a 60% chance of finishing higher. A down call needs about a 60% chance of finishing lower.

Conviction is how much the cards agree. A high number with the words “engines split” means they are loud and pointing different ways. Weight is a suggested size, not a vote. It gets smaller when the report is close. The date on that line is the earnings report.

Each card is one vote

A green number leans up. A red number leans down. The sentence under the number is the plain version of that vote. The small figures under the sentence are the ingredients.

Trend

Whether the price trend is healthy. The percents are the stock’s own change over one month, three months, six months, and a year. “Vs SPY” is that three-month change compared with the market.

Earnings

Whether the company has been beating the published profit estimate. The bars at the bottom of the page are those beats. That percent is the profit versus the estimate, not the stock’s percent move. A company can beat the estimate and still see the stock fall.

Valuation

Whether the stock looks cheap or expensive versus the desk’s hurdle. Forward P/E is the price divided by the next year’s expected profit. The target gap is how far the average analyst target sits from the current price.

Quality

Growth, profit margin, and debt. Fine growth can still leave this vote modest when the margin is thin or debt is heavy.

Positioning

Whether the price is pinned at the high or still has room. “Off the 52-week high” is how far it has fallen from its peak. Volume versus the 50-day average says whether trading is busier than usual.

Options

This is the card that matches an options trade. Up or down can both be the trade. The first number is the move ORATS prices for the report, in either direction. Under it, the past average is what this stock usually does on report day, and the large figure is the biggest of those days. “In line” means today’s option is about normal for this stock. Richer means the option is expensive versus its own history. Cheaper means the move is not fully priced.

The market chance of finishing higher comes from the option prices on the expiry that still covers the report. Near 50% is a coin flip. The past up rate is how often the stock actually finished higher on report day. Skew flat means the put and the call are priced about the same. Put skew richer means the downside is the more expensive side.

Risk

Risk does not vote. It only sets the size. A strong green number here is not a reason to be bullish. The position is kept smaller when the report is close or the stock is jumpy.

For the trade

Use the options card for the trade. The other cards explain why the stock itself is a hold, a build, or a down. A hold with a large priced move is still a real options day. On the week board, a cheap print outranks a higher chance. The ORATS sentence on each row is this same options card, shortened.